Virginia Real Estate Statistics

Virginia Real Estate Statistics 2022-2023

  1. Prices Expected to Rise by 4.1% for 2022
  2. Homes on the market will drop to 10-year low (source)
  3. Fannie May predicts a 7.9% increase in prices
  4. Homes on the market decreased by 54% from 2019-2021
  5. 11,450 home sales in March
  6. Homes closed .6 percent higher than ask
  7. Woodland, VA home prices were up 68% this year
  8. Median home price is $375,000 in March 2022
  9. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage- 4% by the end of 2022

Virginia Real Estate Facts 2022-2023

Prices Expected to Rise by 4.1% for 2022
In 2022, prices are expected to rise by less than half of what they rose in 2021, or 4.1% year-over-year. That would be comparable to price appreciation from 2015 to 2020, a much more reasonable level than the previous year. These numbers are the medium percent increases rather than just an average because it presents a better picture for the average homebuyer. Virginiarealtors.org believes websites like Zillow are drastically exaggerating the increase in housing prices when they predict a 17% rise in 2022. Source 1

Homes on the market will drop to a 10-year low
The market will still favor sellers in 2022. The quantity of homes for sale will continue to decline, despite predictions that inventory will eventually catch up with demand. According to NVAR, the quantity of properties listed for sale in Fairfax County will fall from 2021 to a 10-year low. This could be combated as construction rises compared to when the pandemic shut so much down, but it will likely not be enough to match demand. Prices for raw materials are higher than pre-pandemic, forcing builders to raise their prices and/or slow down their building. Source 2

Fannie May predicts a 7.9% increase in prices
Fannie May’s price prediction is .9% higher than Freddie Mac’s and considerably higher than Redfin and Realtor.com, which are both predicting around a 3% increase in home prices. In contrast, the Mortgage Banker Association actually predicts a decrease of 2.5% in home prices. For the Morgage Banker Association’s prediction to come true, mortgage rates would have to rise drastically. If home buyers had to pay substantially more in interest, that would not allow them to pay for houses that were as expensive as before. Source 3

Homes on the market decreased by 54% between 2019 and 2021.
This means in just two years, the housing supply was cut in half. Many people in 2021 overpaid for homes, according to Peter Shaw, a Tidewater Community College business management professor. When supply decreases so rapidly, it leads to a shortage, which in turn leads to a rise in prices. That is why there has been such a housing market boom over the past few years. Source 4

11,450 home sales in March
This is a 6% decrease from March of 2021. So, even though the market is still quite strong for distressed and single family homes, this could show a decline in demand. Subsequently, the housing market should slow down. The increase in mortgage rates is likely the cause of the slowdown. In the short term, the fear of interest rates rising substantially could force buyers to buy now rather than have to lock in a much higher interest rate in the near future. Source 5

Homes closed .6 percent higher than ask
Virginia real estate closed at a price that was still higher than the asking price. This indicates that even if things have slowed, the market is still hot. Homes also close on average in 26 days, showing that people are still buying up homes rapidly. Virginia Realtors Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant declared that while there are strong headwinds, “the housing market remains very resilient in Virginia.” Source 6

Woodland, VA homes were 68% this year
Woodland, VA homes are now selling for a median price of $421,000. Homes in this region only last on the market for just over two weeks! Certain areas, such as Woodland, are very much a “seller’s market”. Because demand is so high and supply is so limited, housing prices skyrocket as eager buyers compete for the homes in their desired area. Some buyers may have to look at less desirable areas to get into a good home that they can afford. Source 7

Median home price is $375,000 in March 2022
The median home’s price of $375,000 makes it quite difficult for many Americans to buy a house. As interest rates rise, the monthly payments on a mortgage are just too great for people in low-income jobs. Rates are rising faster than they have in 30 years, which increases the total amount paid on a 30-year mortgage drastically. Chief Economist Ryan Price of Virginia Realtors believes “mortgage rates are rising more quickly than anticipated and will likely rise further during the year.” Source 8

30-Year Fixed Mortgage rate to rise to 4% by the end of 2022
Mortgage rates are on the rise and are anticipated to keep doing just that. To understand where real estate will go, it is important to look at where the markets have been before attempting to predict where it is headed. Rates have been incredibly low for the past few years and will now be raised by the Federal Reserve in the hopes of fighting inflation. According to Virginia REALTORS®, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate is expected to rise from 3.10 percent in December 2021 to 4.0 percent by the end of 2022. The National Association of Realtors’ director of housing and commercial research has also stated that interest rates on homes will continue to rise in 2023, so this prognosis appears to be widely shared. The rising interest rates should not negatively affect those who have already locked in long-term fixed-rate mortgages. New home buyers and those with a variable rate mortgage must remain wary of rising interest rates and how that could affect their ability to pay their mortgage. Source 9